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Impact of Unemployment on Real Estate

Without jobs, people cannot pay for housing.  Foreclosures will continue and prices will decline until a new balance is found.  This could be the single factor that delays any recovery in real estate.

 


Impact of Unemployment on Real Estate

http://waves.wavgroup.com/impact-of-unemployment-on-real-estate
Posted on December 12, 2009 13:22:34 by Blog Author Victor.Lund
Comment from: Barbara Reynolds [Visitor] Email
this is an extraordinary graphic depiction of the unemployment issue. It is particularly significant in the midwest/east. The interest rates and prices are outstanding but they mean nothing without a job or the fear of loosing a job
PermalinkPermalink December 13, 2009 18:45:13
Comment from: Victor.Lund [Member] Email · http://www.wavgroup.com
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Barbara, it looks like the Howard Hanna territory did not begin to see an impact until the summer of 2008.


My concern is the uncertain plan the Government Administration has to curb further increases in unemployment.


The federal budget and finance office has not issued any definitive statement about their target rate is for unemployment. Historical job growth strategies involve a combination of monitory policy, business tax incentives or increase deficit spending.


The federal interest rate for bank lending is already at historic lows - so there is not much room to move in that arena. Banks are also weak and not very 'loan worthy.' Systemic of this is the notion that bank lending to consumers and businesses is tight. Banks are investing significantly in repairing bad loans rather than offering new loans.


Government has had a historical tendencies to create tax incentives for businesses who create job growth, but no bill is in the budget today that will have any major impact.


One thing for sure is that Deficit spending will be increased - and probably by a wider margin than any prior administration in history - and surly out of necessity. It is the last bullet in the gun.


Good news is that wall street has been strong - up 60% since May - but I think the market is trading at a lot of risk and volatility. Private Equity banking and Venture Capital continue to trade at a higher risk factor than public markets - but the risk/gain ratio is getting closer between the two.

PermalinkPermalink December 13, 2009 21:12:45
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