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Our ugly little secret called Days on Market

Every week I seem to find myself reviewing the business (not legal) implications of MLS Rules and Regulations.  I believe that NAR does an admirable job in fostering good debate and considerations on rules revision and reform - but Days on Market is a nightmare.  Organized Real Estate would benefit from adopting a rules standard, and publicly displaying Days on Market on every listing on Agent and Broker Websites.

Days on Market is an important statistic in measuring two key performance issues in our industry - market performance and REALTOR performance.  This morning, I read a set of rules that indicate that “Days on Market should be suppressed for the IDX feed, public websites, or to participant websites."  WHY?  What could possibly be dangerous about the public display of Days on Market?  Clearly it is not confidential data.

Consider the consumerIf I am a seller, Days on Market for properties similar to my home in my area provides me with an expectation of the shelf life of my listing.  During my pre-listing research, I need to prepare myself and my family that we are likely to experience 110 days on market for the sale of our home.  Granted, the boundaries may prove to be outside the norm, but at least I would have a benchmark.

Understanding Days on Market will also help a seller to determine their pricing strategy with their REALTOR more effectively.  If the seller understands that the average DOM is 110, and they need to show up for work in a new town in 60, they can aggressively price their home.  If 110 is a comfortable DOM for the seller, they may price the home higher and test the market.  Critics may suggest that this information is readily available from a REALTOR, but I disagree as a consumer.  I want to know this information before I negotiate with my listing agent.

Agents will often overvalue a home during a CMA to win a listing contract, then quickly ask for a price reduction after the first open house.  I love the feature in Broker Metrics and Clarus by California Association of REALTORS that allows broker’s to analyze list price to sale price comparisons between agents.  There are many chronic offenders of this overpricing scheme of ‘bait and switch’ in every market.

I would like to see an agent rating program available to consumers that would display their Average Days on Market per listing.  Perhaps this will be fodder for QSC, one of the leading Agent rating programs.  It would be a great tool for consumers to separate agents who bluff from agents who perform.

If I am a buyer, inventory aging helps me negotiate.  If I have been shopping awhile and a new listings comes on the market that I love - I will know to jump on it fast.  Alternatively, I may look for homes that have been on the market for a long time to go bargain shopping.

Aside from blocking Days on Market from public display, there is a hodge podge of rules regarding how long a listing needs to be off the market to reset Days on Market.  Some MLSs reset this whenever a listing is cancelled and relisted.  Some MLSs require the listing to be off market for 30, 60, or 90 or 120 days.

I understand the arguments on both sides of this issue.  There are many examples, but lets examine the issue of Termite damage.  In California, every home has termites or is about to get termites.  Some homeowners do a better job than others at combating these pesky insects, but unless you just tented your home - you have termites.  Some home sellers may elect to list the property before termite abatement, and roll the costs into the listing.  Other sellers manage the termite issue after an offer has been accepted.  Depending on the home, this expense adds anywhere from a few thousand to tens of thousands in costs to the sale.

Organized Real Estate would benefit from adopting a rules standard, and publicly displaying Days on Market on every listing on Agent and Broker Websites.

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Our ugly little secret called Days on Market

http://waves.wavgroup.com/our-ugly-little-secret-called-days-on-market
Posted on June 16, 2009 06:48:15 by Blog Author Victor.Lund
Comment from: Nithi Vivatrat [Visitor] Email · http://www.smithadams.com/blog/
Victor,

I wholeheartedly agree that reform/standardization of rules regarding DOM is long overdue. The more transparency and clarity here, the better for consumers.

I wanted to add this: there seems to be a prevailing rule of thumb that, when selling a property, the lower the DOM, the better. I would argue that just as a very high DOM for a property might indicate that a property is priced too high, a very low DOM might indicate that a property was priced too low and money was left on the table. After all, the market is not perfectly efficient -- it may take time for enough potential buyers to see a property for a fair "market price" to be set. I wonder if the broker/agents congratulating themselves on selling a property quickly really got the best deal possible for their client. There's a balance to be struck here.

Your point in the 4th paragraph is the salient one -- if consumers can have a good understanding of the DOM trends in their area, then THEY can make the right pricing decisions based on the urgency/timeline of their own situation.

Great post!
PermalinkPermalink June 16, 2009 11:40:43
Comment from: Matt Cohen [Visitor] Email · http://www.callclareity.com/
Great post Victor!

I would just like to add that as data is moved around data shares, it wouldn't do to have calculated fields such as DOM (or ADOM or CDOM) being calculated to different values based on the same base data. Standards would be very useful.
PermalinkPermalink June 16, 2009 12:31:59
Comment from: Victor.Lund [Member] Email · http://www.wavgroup.com
Default avatar
Great Comment Matt - CARETS contemplates this in their rules and perhaps is setting a model standard for others to follow.
PermalinkPermalink June 16, 2009 13:03:02
Comment from: Marilyn.Wilson [Member] Email
Default avatar
Along with standards for DOM across markets, it would also be helpful to think about ways to prevent realtors from "gaming the system". The industry has gotten a lot of bad press from national shows like Nightline for taking products on and off the market and then resetting the clock. If we want to improve our industry's trust relationship with consumers we need to continue to expand transparency. Days on market is one great tool to employ to begin this process.
PermalinkPermalink June 16, 2009 13:37:39
Comment from: Victor.Lund [Member] Email · http://www.wavgroup.com
Default avatar

From About.com


One of the first things a buyer asks about a listing is its days on market.  Days on market matter. To determine the average days on market, agents
take the last 30 days to six months of sold listings, add together the
days on market (before each listing went pending) and divide that total
by the number of listings.



For example, if six listings entered pending status in December --
meaning the seller accepted a buyer's offer but it has not yet closed
-- and three of those listings were on the market for five days, one
listing was on the market for 21 days and two were listed for 30 days
before an offer was accepted, first add together all the days on
market. The average days on market for December, in this example, is
derived by adding 5 + 5 + 5 + 21 + 30 + 30, which equals 96 days. Then
dividing 96 by six listings will equal 16 average days on market.


 


Do Average Days on Market Matter?



Which is more important? The 16 average days on market or the number of
days on market of each listing? If you're a buyer, of course, it's the
home you want to buy that matters. If you're a seller whose home has
been on the market for 17 days, you will have fallen into the lower 50%
of homes that sold over the previous month.


 


How Buyers Look at Days on Market



There are no ifs, ands or buts about it. When buyers see extensive days
on market, they figure the seller is desperate to sell because the home
is still on the market. Buyers also believe there might be something
wrong with the home that caused other buyers to pass it up. Both of
those assumptions, however, can be wrong.



Homes can linger on the market for the following reasons:


 



  • The common reason is overpricing.
    The agent may
    have "bought" the listing by misleading the seller into believing the
    home was worth more than the market will bear. It's not unusual for an
    agent to deliberately take an overpriced listing

     



  • Little seller motivation.
    Sometimes sellers
    want to "test the market" by pricing too high, just to see if they can
    find a fool to pay that price. It's known as a sellers worst mistake.

     



  • Stubbornness.
    Sellers could be stuck on the price and willing to wait out the market until the market catches up to the asking price.

     



  • Down real estate market.
    In buyer's market, it can take longer to sell a home than in Seller's Market A home that would sell in five days in a seller's market might sell in 190 days in a down real estate market (like today)

     



  • Unsuitable to show.
    Sometimes sellers put homes on the market before they are ready to let buyers see it. They might be finishing resale repairs or painting during the first 30 to 60 days of a listing.

     




 


Agent Practice of Relisting to Reset Days on Market



A common practice among many real estate agents is to withdraw a
listing from MLS after a certain number of days and relist it as a new
listing. Agents relist to show zero days on market because they know
that buyers gravitate toward new listings.



Many buyers dislike this practice because they feel it is misleading
and not an accurate picture of the number of days on market. After a
home is on the market for 60 to 90 days, it is not unusual for it to
sell within five days after coming back on the market as a new listing.



Sometimes listings expire. Many agents take a listing for 90 days and when the listing expires
a new agent snaps up the listing and reaps the rewards of the first
agent's hard work. If you're happy with your present agent, you might
consider relisting with your existing agent.


 


Cumulative Days on Market



Some MLS systems refuse to let agents withdraw a listing and enter it
as a new listing without first canceling or expiring the listing. In
either case, it is relatively easy for an agent to determine the number
of days on market; it's not so easy for a buyer.


 




  •  




 

PermalinkPermalink June 16, 2009 13:44:34
Comment from: Richard Silver| Torontoism.com [Visitor] Email · http://www.Torontoism.com
It would be great if some sort of rule was put in place to give some clarity to this issue of DOM. However, I am always amazed at the creativity of our members when it comes to circumventing rules and manipulating statistics for their own use. That being said...I wholeheartedly would support a standard on how to tabulate Days on the Market.
PermalinkPermalink June 16, 2009 13:51:53
Comment from: Ines Garcia [Visitor] Email · http://www.MyWestonBlog.com

Victor, you are more than right! DOM is a very important information most sellers and buyers ask for. In this era of transparency and easily accessed information it's a must to have it displayed in every listing.


There has to be a system to track DOM and the same across the country.


It has been a challenge to obtain additional fields from the Boards in our area to be able to provide as much information as possible to our consumer. In our searches we display the % of price change. Unpleasant for some but useful to many.

PermalinkPermalink June 16, 2009 21:08:04
Comment from: Mike Sparr - Goomzee.com [Visitor] Email · http://www.goomzee.com
Great points, and I agree it's odd that DOM is "protected" information, even with some RETS feeds we receive this field is not allowed.


Is this more an issue of how to calculate DOM for accuracy/consistency, or the exclusion of this field in IDX feeds to be displayed on sites? It seems there are two issues being discussed.


I'm curious if instead of trying to standardize the DOM, we just make sure the date listed is accurate and let web application calculate it. Is that too risky and is it best to have it calculated by the MLS software? My only thinking here would be if some syndicate sites have stale listings and they just display an old static DOM value versus having the listing date and computing it (today - listing date), it would be more accurate. Then again, if the listing were too stale, it may not have accurate price or status so less valuable regardless.


Interesting topic!

PermalinkPermalink June 17, 2009 02:52:57
Comment from: Judith Lindenau [Visitor] Email · http://www.judithlindenau.com
I've always thought that Days on the Market is a really misleading indicator. It assumes that a property has been fortunate enough to have been sold...in these economic times, that's a very misleading assumption.
PermalinkPermalink June 17, 2009 06:46:39
Comment from: Ryan Carrell [Visitor] Email · http://www.callcarpenter.com
Reliable statistics are key to any important business decision. Standardizing DOM calculations would certainly increase the reliability of that statistic. At the same time, many if not all statistics, are subject to interpretation. It is the interpretation where the REALTOR that is key. I believe in transcparency, however, listing DOM on our website or IDX feeds may very well lead buyers and sellers astray. Ex: The neighborhood I live in has very few sales per year (less than 6). Most properties sell in less than 20 days, but there have been two recent circumstances that ended with DOMs of nearly a year. A recent snapshot, or a simple average stat for my neighborhood is now skewed for sometime. There are also nuance that need to be consider when talking about agent rankings and using DOM as a criteria. As a relocation professional, many of the agents on my relocation team working with corporate transferees and are subject to a number of competing issues including listing price guidelines and corporate vs. single party sellers and motiviations. In some cases those factors favor the agent and in others they do not. But in all case a statistic like DOM is impacted.
PermalinkPermalink June 17, 2009 09:10:01
Comment from: Victor.Lund [Member] Email · http://www.wavgroup.com
Default avatar
Via Twitter @miamibeach: ok been thinking. I think that the system is so easy to get around--there will be NO way to really reform DOM reporting.
PermalinkPermalink June 17, 2009 09:10:13
Comment from: Victor.Lund [Member] Email · http://www.wavgroup.com
Default avatar
Via Twitter @pkitano: great article victor! lot of affirmation on this pt
PermalinkPermalink June 17, 2009 09:12:51
Comment from: Greg Robertson [Visitor] Email · http://Dwellicious.com
Sans "re-listing" tricks I don't see how DOM is misleading. In any market, if the home is priced right, it should sell.
PermalinkPermalink June 17, 2009 09:38:32
Comment from: Mike.Audet [Member] Email · /www.wavgroup.com
Default avatar
Victor, great post. My only note of caution regarding consumers and posting DOMs is that until there are standards, consumers won't know what they are looking at. One MLS will use cumulative DOMS and another won't...so, I'm in total agreement for standards and then tranparencee!
PermalinkPermalink June 17, 2009 09:48:49
Comment from: Jeff Israel [Visitor] Email
Great post Victor. There is a saying where I'm from; "Figures lie and liars figure". Those that wish to manipulate statistics in their favor will always find a way to do so. For that reason, all MLS statistics should be taken with a healthy grain of salt. I believe DOM should not be readily displayed so that an experience real estate professional may interpret or qualify the statistic. I realize there is a national movement to standardize MLS data. I believe the real estate business is still a local, broker to client one. I also believe in local determination of real estate definitions. Your post is most timely for us as we are currently reviewing our definition of DOM and its associated policies. The question now becomes - should local brokers lose the right to define their real estate market for sake of a national standard? To what benefit? Or, more to the point, who benefits? The consumer? How many clients and potential clients search for properties out of their local market? Don't most people reside very near where they were born? They may use a national search engine but our statistics show the vast majority of syndicated property searches are from our State. Call it what you may but I for one stand against brokers losing control of their MLS. Great thought provoking post Victor. Thank you.
PermalinkPermalink June 17, 2009 19:10:09
Comment from: Victor.Lund [Member] Email · http://www.wavgroup.com
Default avatar

Great Thoughts Jeff! Thank you for sharing them. I agree with you that local MLSs need to be in charge of the rules and regulations that represent the will of their local membership.


In fact, I have been comparing rule sets for a client all day today to appreciate rule changes that may impact their membership if they enter into a data share.
The MLS does not have anything in their rules about how days on market is calculated, and that statistic is not included in their IDX rules. The proposed data share rules explicitly suppress the use of this field - so in this case there is no issue.



My feeling is that the DOM and CDOM creates confusion when there are overlapping MLS markets. Most professional agents will be able to articulate the differences, but there are plenty that will not take the time or even be aware of the differences.
Moreover, as others articulate above - many agents try to manipulate the DOM field in ways that may be deceptive to buyers and sellers. That is not healthy for real estate.


After participating in this discussion, I tend to agree with the notion that the field may be useless. There is really no correlation between DOM and the likelihood of any individual property experiencing a time on market approximating the DOM for that price point in that region. It is a SWAG.


Economists can use the active listing count and the sold data to calculate absorption rates and days of inventory without the use of DOM fields.



Does anyone have a good argument on why it should live in its current form?

PermalinkPermalink June 17, 2009 19:28:30
Comment from: Cary Sylvester [Visitor] Email · http://www.kw.com
Victor,
As always, a great post! I'm an advocate for more information for the consumer so they come to the table knowledgeable and ready for a conversation. A common fear is that the information will be misused or misinterpreted by the consumer. If that happens, what better opportunity for the agent to display their expertise! With that said, in order for DOM display to provide any benefit, there must be a standard, at a minimum, within each MLS.


However, as I mentioned in my tweet, I don't agree with posting DOM stats for an agent automatically. These averages will be misunderstood and the real estate agent may not have the chance to educate the consumer. With a listing or market statistic, this is a conversation opener for a potential buyer and an agent. I believe it should be up to the agent to choose to provide their average DOM when and where they choose.

PermalinkPermalink June 18, 2009 00:30:54
Comment from: infosam [Visitor] Email · http://www.twitter.com/infosam

Days on Market (DOM) is a subjective measurement that will always have shades of grey associated with it. In an industry that is increasingly driven by real-time alerts and "hot sheets", the impetus to re-mint a listing as New, is also increased.


Simply relisting a property accomplishes this in many cases.
When do you say that a listing went on the market? In the Houston MLS we have put together a system that places an asterisks * next to the DOM if the property has been previously listed in the last 12 months. This alerts any Realtor in the MLS that they might want to take a look at the Property Archive Report (PAR) to see the listing and sales history of that property.



DOM is more a measure of how well a property was initially priced and professionally marketed in the first place rather than an indication of overall market conditions. It would be a mistake to attempt to turn it into an important market metric. It is inherently unreliable.



Implementing restrictive policies on the sale and relisting of properties could result in the unintended punishment of the initial broker by giving the seller a reason to switch brokers, if that was the only way to "refresh" a listing and call it "New".



DOM is a field that can be useful to an trained professional with access to a Property Archive Report. The asterisks * alerts that professional to the additional information in the PAR, so they can help their client assess market conditions for that property.


The PAR is only as accurate as the MLS data is. Addresses need to be standardized and TAX IDs verified in order to correctly report on the history of each MLS listed property.

PermalinkPermalink June 23, 2009 15:37:24
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Victor Lund
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